Mexico breathed a sigh of relief this week when Donald Trump delayed his threatened tariffs by a month, apparently swerving away from an economic crisis at the last moment.
But one aspect of the spat still rankles: the Trump administration’s vague but shocking accusation of an “intolerable alliance” between Mexico’s government and organised crime.
The phrase marked a step change in US discourse, and made every headline in Mexico. But experts say it misses the mark.
“Of course Mexico has a problem with corruption,” said Carlos Pérez Ricart, a political scientist in Mexico City. “But the Mexican government is not an ally of organised crime. And those who say it is are lying, or simply do not know or understand Mexico.”
Organised crime could be seen as a ubiquitous but uneven “parallel power”, said Will Freeman, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Sometimes it works with the state; sometimes it fights it. Sometimes they just exist side by side,” Freeman said.
Corruption is most prevalent at a municipal level, which is both the least protected layer of the state and where criminal groups seek deals with authorities to deepen their control over the local territory and its businesses.
This was on show during the 2024 elections, when more than 30 candidates were killed as criminal groups competed for influence. But corruption has gone higher up, too.
Several state governors have been extradited to the US for ties to organised crime, while the Trump administration cited the case of Genaro García Luna, the former security chief who was recently sentenced to 38 years in US prison for receiving bribes from the Sinaloa cartel.
Then there were the allegations against Salvador Cienfuegos, the former defence minister who was arrested on drug-trafficking charges at the Los Angeles airport, only to be released under pressure from the Mexican government.
But such cases did not equate to an alliance, a term that tarred the whole of the government, said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, a researcher at the University of California at San Diego.
“The way it’s phrased implies that it’s all done with the knowledge of the Mexican government, and almost willingly,” said Farfán-Méndez. “No one denies the existence of corruption in Mexico. But that’s very different to saying [the government is] an active participant.”
US frustration may have stemmed from its perception that the Mexican government has more intelligence than it acts on. “The army has such power in Mexico,” said Freeman. “I think they see and hear everything that’s going on.”
But inaction may just reflect differing priorities: while the US wants to go after top drug traffickers, Mexico primarily wants to reduce violence. And in practice, these objectives often run counter to one another, said Pérez Ricart.
Last year, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, who founded the Sinaloa cartel with Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, was detained along with one of Guzmán’s sons after a small plane arrived in the US.
This started a war within the Sinaloa cartel that has killed or disappeared almost 2,000 people so far.
The Mexican government was blindsided by the arrests, and blamed the US for triggering the violence. US authorities have denied their involvement, while celebrating the arrest of El Mayo.
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“This is what happens when you have unilateral, uncoordinated actions,” said Farfán-Méndez. “What is happening in Sinaloa is not a desirable outcome.”
If the US is frustrated by Mexico’s lack of action on fentanyl, Mexico has “every right to be frustrated, too”, said Pérez Ricart: “The US keeps selling guns that end up in Mexico.”
She added: “There’s frustration on all sides – but diplomacy is the way to resolve it.”
Trump and the Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, both of whom took power within the space of a few months, inherited a bilateral security relationship in tatters.
However, the political situation in Mexico could be ripe to rebuild it – if the Trump administration wants to take the opportunity, said Freeman.
Sheinbaum has a rare level of political power, with sky-high approval ratings and her party, Morena, holding a two-thirds supermajority in congress.
Sheinbaum is also changing Mexico’s security strategy, taking steps to confront organised crime and untangle its penetration of local government.
“You have the ingredients in Mexico now – and maybe not again – to actually do something about this,” said Freeman. “If the gloves-off toughness from Washington was coupled with some actual intelligence, this could be a really important turning point.”
He added: “But ultimately I think Trump’s theory of the region is just to harden the US-Mexico border – and who cares what happens to the south of that.”
