There are a couple reasons why these aren’t the best indicators for how reliable airports might be for the upcoming holiday season.
The holidays seem to be all about lists. Lists of gift guides, top holiday destinations, and who’s been naughty or nice seem to dominate the conversation during the holidays. One “list” that keeps populating my inbox is by some travel company or other who has commissioned a study on the best or worst airports for holiday travel.
These lists get a lot of attention, because we just can’t help but click on them. We must make sure our airport isn’t on the list, mustn’t we? Or perhaps we despise our airport and want to confirm it’s on the list to know whether the list-authors truly know of what they write.
But there’s a catch: these “studies” commissioned by travel companies are often little more than rudimentary data pulls of on-time performance for each major airport for a set period. One study just looked at airport on-time performance from January to June, 2024, while another just looked at on-time performance for December 2023.
There are a couple reasons why these aren’t the best indicators for how reliable airports might be for the upcoming holiday season.
Past Performance Doesn’t Equal Future Probability
Airline scheduling is massively complex, and the factors that go into a flight arriving on time or delayed are even more massively complex. So complex that the degree that each flight is like its own unique snowflake.
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Say you look at an airport that had lower on-time performance for the survey period. Several of the lists I saw rated a handful of airports pretty low that are typically pretty reliable. That’s because even efficient airports can have periodic dips in on time flights because of incidental airport problems. Sometimes a runway is closed for repair. Sometimes an airport is resurfacing the ramp, leaving a couple gates out of commission. Perhaps terminal construction means more passengers are late to the gate and flights are held for them.
The environment also changes. No two operational days at an airport are the same, not only because of the situation at the airport, but because of the situation in the airspace around the airport. The FAA controls the approaches and air lanes around airports, and they can expand or reduce the amount of traffic allowed through for various reasons. Airline schedules also change frequently. If the number of widebody aircraft in the airspace increases, it can also slow things down, because bigger planes need more space between them.
And we haven’t even mentioned weather, yet. For the survey that only looked at a single month, the fluke could have been an extraordinary weather event, like a cluster of snowstorms. Record snowfall at an airport last year doesn’t mean it’ll happen this year.
Averages Are Meaningless
If the past performance isn’t a good predictor, what about the airport’s overall efficiency? Aren’t some airports and some flights just prone to being delayed?
Yes, they are, and the US Department of Transportation tracks specific flight numbers that are consistently delayed (more than half the time). While this may indicate systemic issues—many chronically delayed flights are operating at peak periods from already congested airports—it’s little different from getting stuck in traffic during rush hour. And chronically delayed flights are often not delayed during peak holiday travel periods because peak times of day for travelers can be slightly different than normal.
But all of that is also not particularly helpful for holiday travelers, who don’t take the same flight every day. It’s not the average that matters, it’s whether or not your flight is on-time that matters. If your flight is on-time, you don’t care what happens the rest of the time, and if your flight is delayed, it’s no comfort at all the other flights from your airport have left on-time.
What to Do During a Delay
First, be sure to download your airline’s app before travel. Many airlines will do text or e-mail notifications when they have flight delays, but push notifications from the app are often the best way to stay informed about changes. Some airlines, like United, even allow you to connect directly with a customer service agent directly on the app if you need help during your travels.
Most airlines will also update your reservation as soon as a flight delay qualifies you to rebook without charge, and most of them will let you make those changes directly from their app. Some airlines will also automatically rebook you (and you can still pick something else if what they booked doesn’t work for you). If they don’t come through on their app, don’t wait for instructions—get someone on the phone as soon as you can, or get in line to speak to an agent at the airport without delay.
