If one thing is for sure in today’s higher education landscape, it’s that the future is uncertain.
Things that were previously dependable, such as federal funding, have been upended. Future enrollment trends now look even murkier as the federal government targets diversity initiatives and international students. Tariffs and a potential recession stand to impact university finances and investments.
Although it’s difficult to predict how things will shake out for higher education, university consultants say college leaders can take steps to best position their institutions for a changing landscape.
1. Plan deeper
Scenario planning — the practice of preparing for different contingencies — is not new. But it’s taken on increased importance with the growing uncertainty colleges and universities are now facing.
Spending time thinking through and sitting with different scenarios can feel bleak, said Carla Hickman, vice president of research at consultancy EAB. But it can also make those decisions easier when they arise.
“Being able to identify what those decisions are, who’s going to make them, and who’s accountable has been really empowering for people,” she said. “It starts to give you agency again.”
Those scenarios might include major revenue hits, such as a pullback of research funding or other federal dollars.
“You want to budget low and hope for high,” said Ruth Johnston, vice president of consulting at the National Association of College and University Business Officers. “But you’ve got to take into account: Do you want to stop hiring? Do you want to stop travel? Do you want to stop procurement?”
Some of the potential decisions may require officials to conduct further research to fully understand them.
Institutions may need to explore how much they could raise tuition or alter their discount rate, anticipating lower enrollment revenue, Hickman said. In graduate programs that are heavily filled with international students, finances are likely to change if those students are no longer interested or able to study in the U.S.
After making contingency plans, Hickman said leaders should also determine the leading indicators of the scenario coming to pass.
2. Overcommunicate
Making decisions is one part of the equation, but communicating them is another.
People don’t like to be surprised, said Johnston. And when they lack information, rumors abound, which can exacerbate a situation.
Being transparent about how decisions are made, who is making them and how often they are evaluated can help build trust, Hickman said.
“It’s good communication hygiene, but it’s the kind of thing that under better circumstances, you can often put to the side because people just have a high-trust environment,” she said. “We’re not operating in a high-trust environment right now.”
In her work with EAB, Hickman said she’s seen more universities holding regular town halls with faculty, staff, students, alumni and major donors.
And while it might be tempting to tailor information to those different audiences, that could backfire if stakeholders feel they are not getting the full picture, she said. It’s important to ensure people have received the same message.
3. Bring people in
Communicating with students, faculty and other groups is important, but so is bringing them into the decision-making process, Johnston said.
That can mean asking members of the campus community for ideas about where to make potential cuts. It can also mean including members of those communities on decision-making bodies, like steering committees or task forces.
“The ideas, collectively, if you bring people together, are going to be better than just the leader talking to the business officer or to the provost,” she said.
4. Get fundamental
There’s no question that the sector will likely see more downsizing, mergers and acquisitions, and closures, Johnston said.
Some colleges are already studying what it costs to provide different programs and how many students those programs need to enroll to be financially sustainable, she said.
Some colleges may begin to pivot, taking stock of what they can do well and what they can leave behind, Hickman said.
“There are going to be schools that say, ‘We can’t support 100 majors anymore, but we’re going to do these 30 programs really well,’” she said. “And that is going to be a painful choice and a difficult one, but they’re going to use this moment to come out of this leaner and better.”
Pivoting can also mean that officials take a deeper look at their institutions’ missions.
With finances potentially tight, colleges will look for ways to squeeze out more enrollment revenue, as well as philanthropy dollars, said David Strauss, a principal at consulting firm Art & Science Group.
“Both of those things are going to require institutions and their leaders and their communities, not only to figure out what they believe in or what they aspire to, but what their constituencies will respond favorably to,” Strauss said.
Making ends meet may mean looking deeply at the experiences and value that an institution offers, he said, not just tinkering around the edges.
“It will not be enough in the face of current events to simply think you need to sell harder,” he said. “It’s actually a question of responsibly evolving what the institution is, does, and delivers in its experience.”
