With Roughly a Month Left, Trump Is Running Out of Time For Dozens of Trade Deals

Can President Donald Trump make 89 trade deals in 34 days? The trajectory of the U.S. economy could depend on it.

Wednesday marks a key deadline in Trump’s negotiations with U.S. trading partners. The White House sent a letter earlier this week asking dozens of countries to submit their “best offer” for a trade deal by June 4.

Various trade partners have been in talks with the U.S. to avoid country-specific “reciprocal” tariffs, which Trump paused for 90 days shortly after announcing them. If trade deals cannot be reached, the duties will resume on July 9 at midnight Eastern Time.

“This letter was simply to remind these countries that the deadline is approaching and the president expects good deals, and we are on track for that,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a press conference Tuesday, confirming an earlier report about the letter from Reuters.

And that’s not the only tariff deadline looming. On July 9, a 50% tariff will be levied against goods from the European Union. On August 12, a 90-day pause on 145% tariffs against China expires.

Can the Administration Make All 90 Trade Deals With the Time Left?

In April, Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro said it was possible the U.S. would make “90 deals in 90 days.” So far, the U.S. has only signed an agreement with Great Britain, one of its closest allies, and not one of the nations targeted for hefty “reciprocal” tariffs.

Some trade experts have been skeptical that Trump could negotiate such a large number of trade deals in such a short period. Historically, trade negotiations have been slow and complex, and have taken on average more than a year to hammer out.

On Polymarket, a betting website, gamblers were pricing in better than 50% odds of India and Japan making a deal with the U.S. before July. Deals with other countries are seen as less likely.

Negotiations May Have Gotten Complicated

Further clouding the outlook are the legal obstacles to the tariffs.

Last week, a federal court struck down many of the tariffs, only to have an appeals court allow them to proceed at least temporarily. Trade experts have said Trump could still impose tariffs if he ultimately loses the legal battle, but the uncertainty could affect how other countries approach the negotiations.

If the negotiations fail, the economy and household finances could pay a steep price. If deals are not reached and the deadline is not extended, the full brunt of Trump’s proposed tariffs will go into effect, and import taxes will skyrocket.

Some forecasters, including Goldman Sachs, have warned the economy will likely fall into a recession if that happens. Currently, Goldman is forecasting a 35% chance of a recession based on the assumption that the full reciprocal tariffs will not be put in place.