Cannes 2025 Palme d’Or Contenders Ranked: Who Could Win the Top Prize?


Updated, May 21: The raves are in for dissident Iranian director Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just an Accident,” with the asylum filmmaker in attendance at Cannes for Wednesday’s press conference and Tuesday night’s premiere. The powerful drama — less reflexive than Panahi’s recent films like “No Bears” or “Taxi” in which the director, by virtue of his outsider and formerly incarcerated status in Iran, is forced to become a character himself — has some of the best reviews out on the Screen International jury grid. It follows an ever-growing group of Iranians who kidnap and consider killing their former captor under the regime. In an affecting move, Panahi shows women without hijab, such as a wedding photographer roped into being a part of the man’s captivity, to reflect the shifts in his native country’s society post-Woman, Life, Freedom movement.

Panahi spoke openly during the press conference and in a Variety interview about how his experience in prison under interrogation and torture-like tactics inspired this politically rousing film. It’s tough and dark but also features plenty of humor, and there’s seemingly no one at Cannes who doesn’t think it’s a second-week Palme frontrunner. Panahi previously won the Camera d’Or for his 1995 debut “The White Balloon” and the Best Screenplay prize in competition for “3 Faces” in 2018.

“It Was Just an Accident,” as it’s titled in English, is a sales title currently looking for U.S. distribution. I’ve spoken to a few buyers who loved the movie. Based on early reviews, including IndieWire’s rave, someone will want to snap this one up quickly before Saturday’s awards ceremony.

Carla Simón’s autobiographical “Romería” out of Spain, about an aspiring filmmaker who ventures into learning about her family history and especially her late father, who died of AIDS in the early 1990s when she was young, also debuted Wednesday to supportive reviews. The superb cinematography from Hélène Louvart, who also shot Scarlett Johansson’s Un Certain Regard premiere “Eleanor the Great” but is a regular at Cannes with her work (“La Chimera,” “Motel Destino”), deserves consideration from the jury.

Premiering today in Cannes are “The History of Sound” and “Sentimental Value,” which screened for reviewers earlier on Saturday and could be up for prizes themselves. Reviews, which just broke, for “The History of Sound” are mixed, though Paul Mescal could be a Cannes Best Actor contender for his moving portrayal of a music student enamored with Josh O’Connor. They go on the road together, falling in love and collecting music after bonding as fellow Boston Conservatory students. MUBI has distribution rights and will release the queer World War I-adjacent romance later in the year. It will no doubt make the rounds at regional fall festivals on the way to an Oscar campaign. Oliver Hermanus’ film doesn’t feel like a Palme winner, though. It’s not hugely giving in terms of emotions, which are what the juries go for.

We’ll keep updating the below ranking.

Earlier, May 20: We are exactly a week into the 2025 Cannes Film Festival, and on a day of severe, soaking rain hailing down upon the Croisette. In other words, ideal moviegoing weather.

At this point, we’ve seen 13 competition titles, with Julia Ducournau’s divisive epidemic-horror-meets-grief-drama “Alpha” debuting Monday night to wildly mixed reactions (including a pan from IndieWire’s own critic and established Ducournau fan David Ehrlich). Ducournau won the Palme in 2021 for “Titane” and is unlikely to repeat this year; Neon releases the AIDS-allegorical domestic drama later in 2025.

Tuesday night brings the premiere of asylum filmmaker Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just an Accident” out of Iran, with the dissident director set to appear in person for a press conference on Wednesday. Could this film follow the pattern of another Iranian director, Mohammad Rasoulof, who won a prize last year for eventual Oscar nominee “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”?

Aubry Dullin, Richard Linklater, Zoey Deutch and Guillaume Marbeck pose during the 'Nouvelle Vague' photocall at Cannes
Aubry Dullin, Richard Linklater, Zoey Deutch and Guillaume Marbeck pose during the ‘Nouvelle Vague’ photocall at CannesGetty Images

Yet to come are Oliver Hermanus’ “The History of Sound,” Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value,” Saeed Roustaee’s “Woman and Child,” Bi Gan’s “Resurrection,” Carla Simón’s “Romeria,” the Dardennes’ “Young Mothers,” and Kelly Richardt’s “The Mastermind.” That film will be the last to premiere in competition, as Cannes awaits the arrival of Josh O’Connor, who is currently in production duties in the United States on Steven Spielberg’s upcoming sci-fi film. That meant he had to miss the “History of Sound” press junket on Tuesday (stay tuned for IndieWire’s coverage), with his co-star Paul Mescal holding court.

So far, there is no clear, universally praised standout, though early premieres “Sound of Falling” from Mascha Schilinski and “Two Prosecutors” from Sergei Loznitsa are holding high on the Screen International critics’ jury grid. There was a lot of praise, too, for Oliver Laxe’s tough sit “Sirat,” a sales title that follows a father and his small son into the Moroccan desert to find his missing daughter amid drug-fueled raves that cross “Mad Max” with Burning Man.

CANNES, FRANCE - MAY 20: Julia Ducournau poses during the
Julia Ducournau poses during the ‘Alpha’ photocall at the 78th annual Cannes Film FestivalGetty Images

Richard Linklater’s black-and-white French New Wave love letter “Nouvelle Vague” was also adored on the ground, appealing to the European and American cinephile set with its gorgeous cinematography and who’s-who of the Parisian filmmaking scene in 1959. It’s more a New Wave hangout movie than a strict chronicle of the making of Jean-Luc Godard’s “Breathless,” though it peels back the curtain on how Godard (Guillaume Marbeck) put together his groundbreaking movie with stars Jean Seberg (Zoey Deutch, who nails Seberg’s wobbly French accent) and Jean-Paul Belmondo (Aubry Dullin, a dead ringer for the late French star).

Kleber Mendonça Filho’s lively, nearly three-hour epic “The Secret Agent,” set in 1970s Brazil and following Wagner Moura as a tech expert on the run during the country’s carnival week, also picked up great reviews. I could see Moura (“Narcos,” “Civil War”), speaking his native Portuguese throughout this energetically directed political thriller, picking up the Best Actor prize from Juliette Binoche’s jury — which includes actors like Jeremy Strong and Halle Berry, who surely responded to the best big-screen performance showcase of Moura’s career.

Still splitting everyone on the ground are Ari Aster’s “Eddington” and Lynne Ramsay’s “Die, My Love,” which scored the biggest sale of the festival so far, $23 million at MUBI with eyes on an Oscar campaign for Jennifer Lawrence, a Cannes Best Actress contender for her character’s postpartum depression spiral. It’s Aster’s first Cannes, and European audiences took more to his COVID-era Western satire than some Americans. Scottish auteur Ramsay, meanwhile, won Best Screenplay in 2017 for “You Were Never Really Here” and is a regular at Cannes despite being less regular in terms of her output (“Die My Love” is her first film since that year).

CANNES, FRANCE - MAY 19: Richard Ayoade, Riz Ahmed, Rupert Friend, Wes Anderson and Benedict Cumberbatch pose during
Richard Ayoade, Riz Ahmed, Rupert Friend, Wes Anderson, and Benedict Cumberbatch pose during ‘The Phoenician Scheme’ photocall at the 78th annual Cannes Film FestivalGetty Images

Getting so-so reviews was Wes Anderson’s “The Phoenician Scheme,” an espionage comedy starring Benicio del Toro and breakout Mia Threapleton, who got emotional during the standing ovation on Sunday night. The painterly, tweezer-precise compositions from production designer Adam Stockhausen and cinematographer Bruno Delbonnel are all on vivid display here, but the narrative leaves something to be desired, and signals it might be time for Anderson to shake up his schtick.

Less buzzy but picking up praise, Chie Hayakawa’s 1980s-set Tokyo coming-of-age drama “Renoir” and Egyptian film industry political satire “Eagles of the Republic,” from 2022 Best Screenplay winner Tarik Saleh (“Boy from Heaven”), also make a bid for the Palme. Hayakawa won the Camera d’Or out of 2022’s Un Certain Regard for “Plan 75,” making “Renoir” her competition debut. Hafsia Herzi’s French-Algerian coming-out chronicle “The Little Sister” was a day four premiere that could pick up a lower-end jury prize or even Best Actress notices for breakout Nadia Melliti, who got a nice interview spread from Vulture’s Rachel Handler.

Based on conversations with distributors, executives, critics, and industry attendees, I’ve ranked below which films are likely so far to score the Palme d’Or. Past winners like “Anora” have popped during the second week, so don’t rule out any of the remaining films. There’s still much to see.

1. “It Was Just an Accident”
2. “Sound of Falling”
3. “Nouvelle Vague”
4. “The Secret Agent”
5. “Sirat”
6. “Two Prosecutors”
7. “Romeria”
8. “Eddington”
9. “Die My Love”
10. “Renoir”
11. “The History of Sound”
12. “Eagles of the Republic”
13. “The Little Sister”
14. “Dossier 137”
15. “The Phoenician Scheme”
16. “Alpha”



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