The US-China Trade War Could Mean ‘Empty Shelves’ Soon, Apollo Says

American shop shelves, aisles and racks could be empty in a few weeks as imports slow, according to Apollo Global Management’s analysis of shipping data.

The number of ships leaving China for the US is “collapsing,” the asset management firm’s chief economist, Torsten Sløk, wrote Friday. If traffic remains depressed, Americans may soon contend with shortages of items commonly sourced from China, which could push prices higher, he said.

Ongoing and fast-evolving trade policies could have a particularly dramatic impact on toys, apparel and furniture. Some $41 billion in toys, games and sports equipment was imported in 2024, and merchandise from China accounted for more than 70% of that, according to data from the Department of Commerce.

“The consequence will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages,” Sløk said. “In addition, we will soon begin to see higher inflation.”

The number of vessels with dry goods departing daily from China was close to 70 in mid-March, but has fallen to about 50, according to 15-day rolling averages compiled by Sløk. Their typical load appears to have declined as well, he said.

The drop-off comes after the US imposed a 145% tariff on imports from China. Under this tax and tariffs on specific commodities, products from China could be subject to tariffs of up to 245%, according to the White House.

More than one-third of imported footwear and shoe parts, by value, and more than one-fifth of knit or crocheted apparel, by value, came from China that year, government data shows. More than a quarter of the value of furniture, bedding, lamps and similar goods imported last year were from China as well, according to Department of Commerce data.

President Donald Trump’s administration has recently expressed its desire to reach a trade deal with China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the level of tariffs on goods traded between the countries as “unsustainable.”