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2025 state government trifecta vulnerability ratings show New Jersey somewhat vulnerable, Virginia trifecta possible
New Jersey’s Democratic state government trifecta is somewhat vulnerable in 2025, and a new Democratic trifecta in Virginia is a moderate possibility according to Ballotpedia‘s 2025 trifecta vulnerability ratings.
A state government trifecta occurs when one party holds the governorship and majorities in both state legislative chambers. Ballotpedia’s annual trifecta vulnerability ratings estimate the chances of trifectas breaking and forming. Our assessment of gubernatorial races is based on race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. For legislative races, Ballotpedia uses the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to change control. Both chambers in a state’s legislature are evaluated individually.
Vulnerable trifecta
New Jersey is not holding elections for state Senate, but is holding elections for all 80 seats in the state House and for the governor’s office. If Republicans gain 13 seats in the House or win the governorship, they will break the Democratic trifecta. Democrats will retain their trifecta if they lose fewer than 13 seats in the House and retain the governorship. Democrats have held partisan control of both chambers of the New Jersey legislature since 2004. The governor’s race is rated Lean Democratic.
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Potential trifecta
Virginia’s governor going into the 2025 elections is Glenn Youngkin (R). The race is rated Tilt Democratic by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales and Toss-up by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. All 100 House districts in the state are also holding elections. Democrats have a two-seat majority in both the House of Delegates and the Senate heading into the elections.
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Best case scenarios by party
The Democrats’ best-case scenario is to retain their trifecta in New Jersey and win a trifecta in Virginia, increasing the total number of Democratic trifectas to 16 nationwide. Virginia Democrats need to maintain their House majority and gain the governor’s office to obtain trifecta control in the state. Democrats in New Jersey need to maintain both their House majority and the governor’s office to retain trifecta control in the state.
The map below shows the best-case scenario for Democrats.
Ballotpedia
Gaining or breaking a trifecta is the name of the game
The Republicans’ best-case scenario is to break the Democratic trifecta in New Jersey and prevent a Democratic trifecta in Virginia. Because both states’ upper chambers are controlled by Democrats and are not up for election, Republicans can not gain any trifectas.
Virginia Republicans need to maintain the governorship or gain at least one House seat to prevent a Democratic trifecta in the state. Republicans in New Jersey need to win the governor’s office or gain at least 12 House seats to break the Democratic trifecta.
The map below shows the best-case scenario for Republicans.
Ballotpedia
Historical context
The 2024 elections resulted in changes to the trifecta status in two states. In Michigan and Minnesota, Democratic trifectas became divided governments. Between 2010 and 2024, 82 state government trifectas were broken or gained.
Each of the seven odd-year election cycles from 2011 to 2023 produced one or two trifecta status changes. Virginia’s trifecta status changed four times in that period, and New Jersey’s changed once.
Ballotpedia
Trifectas by the numbers
The chart above shows how nationwide trifecta numbers have changed between 1992 and 2025. Because newly elected officeholders are not sworn in until December of the election year or January of the following year, changes in trifecta status as a result of general elections are reflected in the following year’s numbers.
This story was produced by Ballotpedia and reviewed and distributed by Stacker.
