We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2025 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 12 to June 23, with the official Emmy nominations announced Tuesday, July 15. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 18 and ends the night of August 27. The 77th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 14, and air live on CBS at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
The State of the Race
As Spring has sprung, the one acting race TV fans seem to have had the most fun trying to predict is Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series. First it was Sterling K. Brown as a Secret Service agent in the new Hulu hit “Paradise,” which sees him reteaming with “This Is Us” creator Dan Fogelman. Then it was Adam Scott for “Severance” Season 2, a performance that he has already been nominated for before. Currently, it’s Noah Wyle on “The Pitt,” which spiritually brings him back to his “E.R.” days, though the veteran TV actor has never actually won an Emmy before. And soon it could be Pedro Pascal for the return of HBO blockbuster series “The Last of Us,” or Diego Luna for the second and final season of “Andor,” or even Jon Hamm in “Your Friends and Neighbors,” the latest from Apple TV+.
Maybe the most fascinating aspect of the race is that it is not as aligned with what the major Outstanding Drama Series contenders are, and does not seem as set on recognizing people that have already been nominated. For instance, “The White Lotus” and “House of the Dragon” are two HBO shows that often capture the attention of Emmys voters but have almost no submissions for the lead acting categories.
And then, it is hard to really call “The Old Man” star Jeff Bridges a major contender when his show was canceled pretty soon after Season 2 finished airing last fall. “Squid Game” star Lee Jung-jae became the first Asian actor to win this Emmy category for his performance in Season 1, but his turn in Season 2 has not seemed to reach the same critical mass. “Slow Horses” star Gary Oldman is the only nominee from last year who is still eligible, but one can assume the massive viewership for “Severance” has made him and his show slightly less of a priority for the network. It does not seem like the spy series will get another Outstanding Drama Series nomination now that more popular series are back in the running. This is not to say Oldman is not still a safe nominee prediction, he just is not as pegged to possibly win as he was last year.
Ultimately, there are plenty of longshots just based on being on a network with fewer Emmy wins, and not enough viewership for the series to carry it to frontrunner territory, but performances from Oscar-winning actors like Eddie Redmayne in the Peacock series “The Day of the Jackal” or Billy Bob Thorton in “Landman” on Paramount+ are not to be counted out based on their nominations for several winter TV awards.
Current Contenders (In Alphabetical Order):
Jacob Anderson, “Interview With the Vampire” (AMC)
Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise” (Hulu)
Joel Edgerton, “Dark Matter” (Apple TV+)
Jon Hamm, “Your Friends and Neighbors” (Apple TV+)
Lee Jung-jae, “Squid Game” (Netflix)
Diego Luna, “Andor” (Disney+)
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us” (HBO)
Eddie Redmayne, “The Day of the Jackal” (Peacock)
Mark Rylance, “Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light” (PBS)
Adam Scott, “Severance” (Apple TV+)
Rufus Sewell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Antony Starr, “The Boys” (Prime Video)
Billy Bob Thorton, “Landman” (Paramount+)
Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (Max)
More Drama Category Predictions:
Outstanding Drama Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 77th Emmy Awards, click here.
Last Year’s Winner: Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: It has been well over a decade since someone has won the Lead Actor in a Drama Series Emmy for back-to-back seasons. Only “Squid Game” star Lee Jung-jae has a chance at starting a streak, since the even less likely option would be for FX to win the category twice in a row, as it is short of Drama Series contenders this season.
Notable Ineligible Series: Dominic West, “The Crown” (ended); Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun” (Season 2 is not eligible); Idris Elba, “Hijack” (Season 2 is not eligible); Donald Glover, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Season 2 is not eligible); Walton Goggins, “Fallout” (Season 2 is not eligible)
